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Markets in retreat on growing fears of Middle East war

by AFP Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) Oct 19, 2023
Asian markets tumbled Thursday on fears the Israel-Hamas crisis would spill over into a wider conflict in the Middle East.

With Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu building up a huge force ahead of an expected land incursion into Gaza, Iran has warned of a possible pre-emptive strike and called for an oil embargo against Tel Aviv.

President Joe Biden was due to make a television address on the crisis later in the day, having delivered full US backing for Israel in person on Wednesday during a solidarity visit.

But Jordanian King Abdullah II, Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi cancelled a meeting with Biden after a deadly strike on a hospital in Gaza.

The tragedy, which each side has blamed on the other -- with Biden backing Israel -- ratcheted up tensions and saw Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah movement call for a "day of rage".

Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian called for an "immediate and complete embargo on the Zionist regime by Islamic countries, an oil embargo against the regime".

He also urged Muslim countries to expel Israeli ambassadors in comments at a summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, called in Saudi Arabia to discuss the crisis.

"The risks of an escalation have risen on the back of the latest news reports regarding the hospital bombing," Jane Foley, of Rabobank, said.

"On any clear escalation, we can expect to see a ratcheting up of risk aversion" in markets, she added.

CMC Markets' Michael Hewson added: "In the absence of a positive catalyst in the coming days there is a risk we could start to see further weakness if tensions escalate further."

All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the red, and Asia followed suit, with Hong Kong more than two percent lower, while Tokyo, Sydney, Shanghai, Seoul and Singapore were more than one percent down.

There were also losses in Mumbai, Bangkok, Manila, Jakarta and Wellington, London, Paris and Frankfurt.

"The window for a diplomatic off-ramp to avert a wider war in the Middle East appears to be closing," said RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft.

"A regional crisis appears the most likely outcome, especially with Israel still seemingly committed to a ground offensive to crush Hamas."

The prospect of a wider war pushed oil prices up Wednesday, though Washington's decision to suspend some sanctions on Venezuelan output tempered the gains and both contracts were slightly lower in Asian trade.

Risk aversion among traders was increased by concerns the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates again, or at least keep them elevated for an extended period.

That pushed US 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9 percent for the first time since 2007, fanning even more unease on trading floors, with focus turning to Fed boss Jerome Powell's speech later in the day at the Economic Club of New York.

That comes after New York Fed chief John Williams said borrowing costs would need to be kept restrictive "for some time" if the bank wanted to get inflation back to its two percent target.

And Fed governor Christopher Waller said: "I believe we can wait, watch and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves on the path of the policy rate... As of today, it is too soon to tell."

Carol Kong, at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "A reiteration of the 'higher for longer' message on interest rates may allow US yields to stay at or above their current levels and keep t he dollar supported."

- Key figures around 0810 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.9 percent at 31,430.62 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.5 percent at 17,295.89 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 1.7 percent at 3,005.39 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.1 percent at 7,504.08

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $86.76 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.8 percent at $90.80 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0535 from $1.0540 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2116 from $1.2141

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 149.80 yen from 149.93 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 86.95 pence from 86.79 pence

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 33,665.08 points (close)


Artificial Intelligence Analysis

Summary:

Asian markets saw a sharp decline on Thursday due to fears that the Israel-Hamas crisis could escalate into a wider conflict in the Middle East. This comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu builds up a large military force to launch a land incursion into Gaza, with Iran warning of a potential preemptive strike and calling for an oil embargo against Israel. President Joe Biden delivered US backing for Israel, but cancelled a meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II, Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi due to a deadly strike on a hospital in Gaza. This tragedy has caused Lebanons Iran-backed Hezbollah to call for a day of rage and Irans Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has called for an immediate and complete embargo on the Zionist regime by Islamic countries.Economic, Environmental, and Safety Implications:

The immediate economic implications of this news are seen in the tumbling of Asian markets, with potential long-term economic implications to follow if tensions escalate. This news is likely to have safety implications for the Middle East, as the region is at risk of experiencing a conflict that could result in further destruction and loss of life. The environmental implications are unclear, but there is potential for destruction of natural resources due to the conflict.Geopolitical and Societal Impacts:

The geopolitical impacts of this news include the US backing for Israel, which is likely to cause increased tension between the US and Arab nations. This news also reveals a strong sense of solidarity among Arab nations, as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation called a summit in Saudi Arabia to discuss the crisis. The societal impacts of this news are unclear, but there is potential for increased tension and discontent within Middle Eastern populations and possible protests in response to the US support for Israel.

Conclusion:

The news of the Israel-Hamas crisis has caused Asian markets to decline and has sparked fears of a potential wider conflict in the Middle East. This news has immediate economic, environmental, and safety implications, as well as long-term economic, environmental, and safety implications depending on how the situation develops. Geopolitically, this news reveals US backing for Israel, which is likely to cause increased tension with Arab nations, and societally, this news could lead to increased tension and discontent within Middle Eastern populations.

Investigative Questions:

  • What are the potential long-term economic, environmental, and safety implications of the Israel-Hamas crisis?
  • How will the US backing for Israel impact geopolitical relations between the US and Arab nations?
  • How will the Israel-Hamas crisis affect Middle Eastern populations?

    Comparison to Star Trek:

    This situation is similar to the Star Trek:

    Voyager episode “Scorpion, Part II”, in which two factions

  • the Borg Collective and Species 8472
  • were on the brink of war. The Voyager crew had to intervene to de-escalate the situation and prevent a destructive war. Similarly, the international community is hoping to prevent an escalation of the Israel-Hamas crisis into a destructive war.

    This AI report is generated by a sophisticated prompt to a ChatGPT API. Our editors clean text for presentation, but preserve AI thought for our collective observation. Please comment and ask questions about AI use by Spacedaily. We appreciate your support and contribution to better trade news.


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