Amid record-high temperatures globally, a study Monday reveals that a few days of searing heat can be enough to prevent billions of people already living hand-to-mouth on daily wages from putting food on the table.
A week of extreme temperatures in India, for example, means an additional eight million people will likely experience serious food insecurity, according to findings published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.
Spread across 150 countries examined -- especially in tropical and sub-tropical zones -- that same heatwave translates into millions of men, women and children at risk of hunger, even if overall food precarity is increased by less than one percent, they found.
The World Bank estimates that nearly 30 percent of the global population suffered moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022.
Analysis of heat impact on food availability is usually limited to decreases in crop yields, with the effects felt over months or years.
The new study, however, reveals that the impact can be immediate when it is tied to income.
"If it gets hot today, there might be food insecurity within just a few days because people can't work, which means they can't earn income and afford to buy food," lead author Carolin Kroeger of Oxford University told AFP.
Such outcomes are typically greatest in jobs where pay is closely tied to productivity, such as for agricultural harvests or piece-rate work.
Female brick carriers in West Bengal, for example, are paid by the number of bricks they carry a day. When the hot weather forces them to carry fewer bricks, they experience income losses as high as 50 percent.
Recent reporting from AFP has illustrated the findings here.
Syrian blacksmith Murad Haddad wakes up early and takes turns at the anvil with his five brothers to avoid the torching temperatures.
"The heat is killing us. I have six kids, and I can hardly look after them," he said. "But if I don't work, I can't make ends meet."
- Records broken -
"You see stronger effects in countries with lower incomes, more agricultural employment and more vulnerable employment," said Kroeger.
Kroeger found that individuals who had just experienced a hot week were more likely to have health problems and "difficulties living on their present income," resulting in significantly lower income.
Those effects were cumulative -- the more hot days in a week, the stronger the impact.
470 billion potential work hours -- equivalent to almost 1.5 weeks of work per person worldwide -- were lost in 2021 due to extreme heat.
The findings come as food prices remain high from sustained inflation and a month after India, the largest rice exporter in the world, restricted exports due to damaged harvests.
But supply and prices aren't the only problem.
Researchers have also found that rising temperatures cause a significant decline in essential nutrients in many of the staple crops and legumes upon which much of the world depends.
"A lot of heat records were broken in the last year or two so I definitely think some of the things we saw might get worse," said Kroeger.
"But there are also a couple of things that could help, like micro-insurances and improvements to labour laws -- the balance could still tilt," she added.
According to the UN's IPCC climate science advisory panel, hundreds of millions of people will likely be afflicted by at least 30 so-called "deadly heat days" eve
ry year by 2080, even if the world meets the Paris climate deal goal of capping warming well below two degrees Celsius.
Artificial Intelligence Analysis
Defense Industry Analyst:
7/10
Stock Market Analyst:
5/10
General Industry Analyst:
9/10
Analyst Summary
:
The study published in Nature Human Behaviour reveals that a few days of extreme temperatures can lead to serious food insecurity, particularly in tropical and subtropical zones, by decreasing the daily wages of those living hand to mouth. The World Bank estimates that nearly 30 percent of the global population suffered moderate or severe food insecurity in 202
2. The authors found that while the overall food precarity may not increase by more than one percent, millions of people are at risk of hunger. The study also highlights that the impact of heat on food availability can be immediate due to reduced income, which is particularly common in labour-intensive jobs such as piece-rate work and agricultural harvests. Recent reporting from AFP has illustrated this, with Syrian blacksmith Murad Haddad describing how the heat is killing him and his six children. Over the past 25 years, there has been a steady increase in the global average temperature due to the effects of climate change, which has had a substantial impact on food production and availability, particularly in tropical and subtropical zones. This study provides insight into how extreme temperatures can have an immediate impact on the livelihoods of those living hand to mouth, leading to food insecurity within a few days.
Investigative
Question:
- 1. What are the long-term impacts of extreme temperatures on food insecurity?
- 2. What strategies can be employed to mitigate the effects of extreme heat on food availability?
- 3.
How does the impact of extreme temperatures on food precarity differ between gender and age?4. How can governments ensure that those affected by extreme temperatures have access to sufficient food?
5. What additional research is needed to better understand the effects of extreme temperatures on food insecurity?
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